'Chances of 2nd GNU are remote' analysts warn

HARARE - Analysts say while there is an urgent need for President Emmerson Mnangagwa and opposition leader Nelson Chamisa to “find each other”, crises-weary Zimbabweans should not raise their expectations that the two political rivals will work together anytime soon.

Speaking in interviews with the Daily News on Sunday yesterday — in the wake of recent suggestions from Zanu PF and the MDC, that Zimbabwe’s two main political parties could be ready to engage each other in the interest of the country and its long-suffering citizens — the analysts also warned that the chances of a second government of national unity (GNU) were slim.

This comes as Zimbabwe remains in the vice grip of a growing economic crisis which has seen the devastating re-emergence of long fuel queues, worsening foreign currency shortages and shocking increases in the prices of basic goods.

As a measure of scale of the crisis facing the country, which has heightened calls for political dialogue between Mnangagwa and Chamisa,
Zimbabwe’s official inflation hit nearly 26 percent in October — the highest recorded in the southern African nation since it adopted the multiple currency system in 2009.

As bad as this official figure appears, particularly given that this is captured in US dollar terms, many independent economists say the country’s “real” inflation is in fact way higher — with some experts putting it close to a staggering 200 percent.

Burning from the resultant economic heat, many Zimbabweans have received the recent news of possible talks between Mnangagwa and Chamisa enthusiastically, seeing this as the best route to save the country from plummeting further to the disastrous economic levels of 2008.

But the analysts who spoke to the Daily News on Sunday yesterday said these hopes were “over-optimistic”, while talk of a second GNU were “way premature”.

“It remains unclear whether both sides are actually talking about the same thing and whether that would lead to a meeting of minds regarding some kind of power-sharing agreement.

“The MDC is now calling for a national dialogue with key stakeholders, as well as a transitional authority at the same time, to oversee the implementation of both needed political and economic reforms.

“Although, the ruling Zanu PF may have some overlapping interests in terms of some reforms, it seems highly unlikely their government will have any interest in seeking a power-sharing arrangement,” Piers Pigou, a senior consultant at the International Crisis Group, said.

“They will not want to give any succour to the MDC’s mantra that Mnangagwa lacks legitimacy. And as far as I can see, they also don't believe either process will or can help them.

“Having said that, they may well engage at some level. But I don’t see any prospects for a genuine commitment to diluting their control through power sharing or dialogue processes,” Pigou added.

Another political analyst, Dewa Mavhinga, also said while it was encouraging that the country’s two political heavyweights were considering dialogue, the process was likely to be complicated.

“First, there has to be a sound legal and constitutional basis for such talks. But presently, it does not appear as if there is one.

“Second, both parties must be willing to have the dialogue, but it also appears as if there are certain pre-conditions that could make the dialogue impossible,” he said.

“For instance, if Mnangagwa insists that he be recognised as a legitimate leader first before any talks, is Chamisa willing and ready to do that?

“My sense is that politically, economically and socially, conditions may need to decline drastically first to raise enough pressure to bring the polarised leaders to the negotiating table. So far the chances of a GNU are not that high,” Mavhinga added.

Another political analyst, Rashweat Mukundu, also said Mnangagwa and Chamisa needed to “find each other first” before they could tackle any thorny issues in their talks.

“If the two leaders focus on what brings them together rather than what divides them, then it is possible to have fruitful talks.

“The commonality between the two is to rescue Zimbabwe from this economic crisis and agree on broad-based political reforms in preparation for 2023.

“This can be the key agenda for the talks and if they agree to work together beyond these issues then the better for Zimbabwe. We all know that the GNU period was far better for the country than the period before and after it,” Mukundu said.

Zimbabwe was forced into a GNU a decade ago, following the hotly-disputed 2008 presidential election in which the late MDC founding leader Morgan Tsvangirai trounced former president Robert Mugabe hands down.

The results of those elections were withheld for six long weeks by stunned authorities — amid widespread allegations of ballot tampering and fraud, which were later revealed by former bigwigs of the ruling party.

In the ensuing sham presidential run-off, which authorities claimed was needed to determine the winner, Zanu PF apparatchiks engaged in an orgy of violence in which hundreds of Tsvangirai’s supporters were killed — forcing the former prime minister in the inclusive government to withdraw from the discredited race altogether.

Mugabe went on to stand in a widely-condemned one-man race in which he shamelessly declared himself the winner.

However, Sadc and the rest of the international community would have none of it, forcing the nonagenarian to share power with Tsvangirai for five years, to prevent the country from imploding completely.

Mnangagwa — speaking through his spokesperson George Charamba in an exclusive interview with the Daily News on Sunday’s sister paper, the Daily News, on Wednesday, said he was open to talks with Chamisa — on the strict understanding that the MDC leader recognised the president as the legitimate winner of the country’s hotly-disputed July 30 election.

This, in turn, came after Chamisa and his key lieutenant Tendai Biti had earlier on Monday told the Commission of Inquiry probing the August 1 shootings in Harare — which left at least six civilians dead — that political dialogue was the only solution to ending the country’s political and economic problems.

Chamisa narrowly lost to Mnangagwa in the July 30 presidential election, before he went on to accuse the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) of manipulating the results in favour of the Zanu PF leader.

But Mnangagwa’s victory was later upheld by the Constitutional Court, which ruled that Chamisa had failed to provide evidence that he had won the election.


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Comments (16)

You need a 3rd way then , a plan C. The party that came third can form a minority administration with only 10 ministers. Zvinhu izvi hazviziikanwe , uye hazvibhejwe. Imbwa ngadzihukure zvishoma pavayeni.. Hatipfure imbwa hatizi machayina. Ko miriyoni yevanhu kanambiri dzikadzoka ?

NewPoo - 2 December 2018

I was at a loss. Disappointed with the New Dispensation. I thought it lacked grounding, realism and a knowledge of the banal, common until my village headman, a very wise man asked me to review EDM s life. He asked me: what is the position that the ordinary man aspires - be they professors, business executives, preachers etc. His answer was being a cabinet minister - indeed...how true! Now consider this...the lowest position that ED ever had since 1980 was that of a cabinet minister....the very lowest, his worst day was being a cabinet minister in charge of rural housing etc, etc. Now you see...the man lived an extraordinary life. He does not know about the position of the ordinary man..never having been one. We therefore should not judge the man harshly. Instead..let us talk to other mortals...councillors, MPs in our midist... these know about the lives of the common man and maybe these may one day be able to articulate our position, our suffering to ED. We cannot leave that to Mtuli...hardly a common man ....he has no appreciation, no understanding as to how a mere two percent tax can ruin, a business, a family, a life or an economy.

New Dispensation - 2 December 2018

Daily Lies & MDC-A just take a chill and wait for the Commissions findings to be published! You so desperately want a GNU, what if the other partner is Chikurubi bound? Daily Lies exaggerate the crises and make them worse than what we endured under Mugabe! WHY! To try to make demagogue Chamisa relevant. Fake news!! You have become so biased and partisan. As expected you will headlining a fake " Public anger and dismay at Commission's findings" and Mafumes, like his name, will be fuming and announcing that another "mammoth demo" is looming! By the time we get to 2023, which seems far way yonder than Jupiter, how many "mammoth demos, how many calls for GNU?

Will Blackman - 2 December 2018

So Cde CIO Blackman..all the suffering is imaginary? Things are much better than they were before the Coup de tat?

Zum - 2 December 2018

Find each other? This Wamba Chamiboy simply must find ED and he knows how and where to find the Croc. ED is our legit Prez and the young Cobra must accept this. Akanzi huya kare kare iye kubvaita manyemwe emhuru sadaddy vake Trump.

Humpty Good - 2 December 2018

Very difficult situation to deal with. Chamisa could have come to the table from the onset, but now Chamisa and Biti got a mountain to climb. They swore and decimated the president and now they will have to kneel down and beg Garwe for mercy,not easy because it also show that these two MDC-A cahoots are just power mongers and nothing else. Chamisa dreamt of making history of being the youngest ever president at 40. Millions of Zimbabweans paid with their lives to liberate the country, I am just of the opinion of youngsters have to wait for their turn which is not far. We are a pride and you must know and understand your position in the pride. Dai Chamisa na Biti came to the party as early,ED could have made Chamisa foreign Affairs minister, so he could tell the west to remove sanctions. Now as it looks Chamisa and biti will have to wait for next elections

Pfeee Mazinyo.Com - 2 December 2018

Munhu akadyiwa kwaMutoko ndye anotaura zveGNU, kuunganidza vanhu vakadaro muHre woti uri popular iwe uchitadza kupinda kunana Mutoko. Plus izvi zvekuti kana adyiwa maelections oti anoda GNU, zvinoita here, yes the economy is bad.

Sama - 2 December 2018

At Pfeee Mazinyo, i don't think those guys are interested in calling for the removal of sanctions.

Sama - 2 December 2018

Order, order, order! Who needs a GNU ..we the povo are happy in this mess that the New Dispensation has brought us in. This should continue and maybe one day the ordinary ZANU pf proletariat will protest. Until then may the misrule continue.

Bob is Best - 2 December 2018

There are two way of our economy struggles,one to pull it down and other to push it up.The pull it down is the side that opposite the gvt policies and plan by painting all with a same brush that their five months in office its enough they have failed. The push it up side is the gvt which is attempt to in line with complexity nature of the economy.Neither of these sides will be happy nor sad at the same time which complicated the nature of working together as family members.Because of this, it is a never never even praise, inspire,or assist the other side no matter what good or desperation one is.If I am MDC-A ,I have to hate Zanu-PF member till death ,the verse is also true. With that mindset in ourselves and our brothers and sisters,there will be no nation building,economy recovery and prospectus Zimbabwe which we are hoping for but admiring other nations that are succeeding in their economy struggles to be our champion and heroes. These sides have no shown honest,trust and workmanship but flaming us to hate ourselves, greed to ourselves and burn the huts that we sleep in like there no tomorrow.Is it a mistake to be born a Zimbabwean with a highly educated people but produce nothing. A nation regard with many natural resources but being poor. Whichever sides that are you for brothers and sisters as long as jealous to one side you[me] shooting to one foot.

Voice - 2 December 2018

If ED won the elction with a marjority parliament why does he need Chamisa. He has a mandate to ensure his government gets us out of trouble. Why insult Chamisa? Isnt he was bitten at the courts? We have a government in place. What happened to prices which where okay just before and soon after elections? Those are the answers we need. If Chamisa has an effect on the economy then he is important and must not be insulted otherwise lets forget him and solve problems without him. Who needs who here?

TKK - 2 December 2018

30% ye web...I WordPress. Vese pasirese zvinoita with just a few lines of code. U have to find means for the other 30%...ko uripapi ?.

Muka - 2 December 2018

All political parties must swallow their prides and starts working together like one family so that we move our country forward without Chamisa right now we are not going anywhere we need him that's the truth GNU is needed right now.

Blessing - 2 December 2018

Who needs a liar, a thug and power hungry maniac posturing and has refused to acknowledge an elected person as president of a country. What type of leadership is this when you tell legislators to flout rules and procedures of the legislature. Mudzuri is heckled for performing his duties! Any party that wants to win the elections and form government would grab any opportunity to showcase itself, so Mudzuri is only trying to show that he cares for people and country and thus is doing the job that he was elected for. And Chamisa is saying NO to that! Is that caring for the PEOPLE? Saka bato iri ranzi dzvi the same way Mugabe controlled Zanu. Funny enough the rise of Chamisa has some semblance to the way Mugabe took over power in Zanu- in unconstitutional and unprocedural fashion. Mugabe's dictatorial traits are easy to see in Chamisa, zvasangana ne misogyny. Tabitha Khumalo hakuchina! And behaviour ye mufana is curiously ominous sometimes, if the two MDC leaders had been burnt and died at the funeral, whose hidden hand would anyone point to, just like S Mujuru's case? And goons continue to want GNU with such!! KWETE!!.... BODO!!

Will Blackman - 3 December 2018

I always say it, and am saying it again. NOW! The Daily Lies always try to push for this megalomaniac boy to get on bord through the back door. He lost fair and square. Got an opportunity to argue his case at Concourt but dismally failed. We all witnessed this live on air. He was called by Mnangagwa to come and assist in rebuilding the nation. But he snubbed at the idea. He has tried all his tricks to torpedo himself to power but failed. He tried to fake a kidnap but failed. He even went on to declare himself president. Kkkkk kuzvikwidza ndege yemashamga. Tried to let the doves fly. but it failed. Tried to light the fire on the so called Inauguration but failed. Even tried his so called Great march that would shut down Harare but failed. Seeing all these failures and seeing the writing on the wall showing his political doom beckoning he desperately want now the president to ensure GNU. Never! But with all these failures, the Daily Lies are still pushing for him to sneak into the government. He even snubbed at the Leader of the opposition being created. His Pride has been his downfall. Let him have a mini 'GNU' in his own party first.

Socrates - 4 December 2018

I always say it, and am saying it again. NOW! The Daily Lies always try to push for this megalomaniac boy to get on bord through the back door. He lost fair and square. Got an opportunity to argue his case at Concourt but dismally failed. We all witnessed this live on air. He was called by Mnangagwa to come and assist in rebuilding the nation. But he snubbed at the idea. He has tried all his tricks to torpedo himself to power but failed. He tried to fake a kidnap but failed. He even went on to declare himself president. Kkkkk kuzvikwidza ndege yemashamga. Tried to let the doves fly. but it failed. Tried to light the fire on the so called Inauguration but failed. Even tried his so called Great march that would shut down Harare but failed. Seeing all these failures and seeing the writing on the wall showing his political doom beckoning he desperately want now the president to ensure GNU. Never! But with all these failures, the Daily Lies are still pushing for him to sneak into the government. He even snubbed at the Leader of the opposition being created. His Pride has been his downfall. Let him have a mini 'GNU' in his own party first.

Socrates - 4 December 2018

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