Chamisa, MDC Alliance on cusp of Barrowian history?

HARARE - The Gambia is a small river country, named after the river which cuts through its heart, the smallest country on mainland Africa, which is entirely surrounded by Senegal on one side and the coastline of the Atlantic Ocean on its western side.

It experienced one of the variety of the now so-called bloodless coups in Africa, when a young military officer, Yayha Jammeh took over power in July 1994, ending the 29-year rule of Dawda Jawara.

But the most interesting developments, for which I write this submission, of course with the above background of the bloodless coup, would occur 22 years later in December 2016.

For the first time, a democratic election went in favour of the opposition, a coalition of seven political parties, led by the United Democratic Party (UDP).

Its presidential candidate — Adama Barrow — after some futile resistance to the election result by Jammeh, finally became the third president of the Gambia.

Interestingly, Barrow had only become the leader of the UDP and its presidential candidate for barely three months, in September 2016, before he was announced as an independent candidate in November, when he won the December 2016 election.

The main and popularly known opposition leader, Ousainou Darboe of the UDP failed to contest the election after his arrest in September of the same year.

Coincidentally, I gave the above as one of the scenarios for the 2018 elections in Zimbabwe after the late Morgan Tsvangirai was diagnosed with colon cancer in 2016, which I called the “Adama Barrow scenario”.

In this scenario, among many others, as given to the Daily News of October 8, 2017, there was a possibility that Tsvangirai would not contest the 2018 elections and a totally new opposition candidate from his party would step up to challenge the ruling party Zanu PF.

I said: “This is what I would call the Adama Barrow scenario because it is like what happened in The Gambia, where an unlikely candidate emerged to lead the opposition coalition and won the presidency, when the known opposition leader couldn’t run.”

In the same story, I weighed that Nelson Chamisa would be sellable to the young generation, which is probably the case now with movements such as #generationalconsensus backing him.

Together with the Nigerian coalition which backed Muhammed Buhari in the country’s first democratic power transfer, The Gambian scenario was presented as one of successful examples by analysts, who urged the Zimbabwean opposition parties to enter into a coalition.

The first condition of the “Adama Barrow” scenario has been fulfilled, sadly after Tsvangirai succumbed to cancer and a new opposition candidate, Chamisa equally backed by seven political parties stepped to the challenge.

Just like Barrow, Chamisa’s candidature, equally supported by a seven-party opposition coalition, the MDC Alliance comes just a few months before the 2018 elections, unleashing a wave of support for change with a real chance of even winning the election.

Zimbabwe might fast-track history from November 2017, where Zimbabweans had known just one president for 37 years, into delivering the country’s third president and maiden democratic transition in the forthcoming election.

Unfortunately, in The Gambia, the military-backed regime of Jammeh tried to block the will of the people only giving in to pressure after the regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) had intervened with the option of using military intervention.

After the so-called “smart coup” in November 2017, in Zimbabwe, the military factor cannot be ruled out in sabotaging democratic transition, while the regional bloc Southern Africa Development Community (Sadc) has been weak in its responses so far.

The fact that President Emmerson Mnangagwa has promised free and fair elections, and that the elections will have international observers presents a glimmer of hope, which requires the vigilance of all stakeholders to guarantee a democratic outcome.

The Barrow election proved to be a truly democratic breakthrough for The Gambia, which is worth emulating.

Comments (4)

I agree with the analysis. However the Barrow Moment for Chamisa might face an uphill battle because of the presence of other alliances like Mujuru's PRC and the coming in of NPF into the scene. I agree that it is highly likely that the second round might hand over the victory to NC provided he is able to negotiate a post-first round coalition with parties that would have lost the first round. I also fore see a George Weah Moment there. Thanks for the analysis.

Melusi Manzini - 25 March 2018

Ya-ah,kwidzanayi ndege yemashanga tione!!

Shingie Zhakata - 25 March 2018

we wait and see the outcome...zim has never been anywhere near free and fair elections since 37yrs ago. Its like a mornachy and a one party state nomatter the opposition.

batine - 29 March 2018

Chamisa ndizvo.We support him.2018 CHAMISA CHETE

charles - 29 March 2018

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