'Mugabe's Zanu PF on way down'

HARARE - Zanu PF is hanging on the edge of the precipice, with more of its bigwigs and supporters set to defect to the opposition ranks ahead of the country's eagerly-anticipated 2018 national elections, a respected local think-tank says.

In a report that was exclusively availed to the Daily News yesterday ahead of its formal release today, the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute (ZDI) said Zanu PF’s worsening infighting had created serious fissures that were becoming impossible to plug.

“The occurrences of internal fragmentation, elite discohesion and defections in Zanu PF may consistently increase over the next two years as Zimbabwe treads towards the 2018 elections,” the report — titled Zimbabwe Political Economy Review: Elite Discohesion and Authoritarian Erosion: Zanu PF on the Precipice — said.

The report also observed that the centre in the governing party can no longer hold, adding that the “lurid internal dissenting voices, a factionalised security establishment and a factionalised State bureaucracy” meant that Zanu PF was possibly now at its weakest point ever.

“The more the internal party fragmentation, the higher the costs of repression and the higher the chances of defection (exit), and the more probable the possibility of defeat of the hegemonic political party,” ZDI said.

It also noted that amid this helter-skelter, “Zanu PF and Mugabe’s power is slowly being eroded and waning like the morning dew”.

“The party’s dominance has been necessitated by party-State conflation, control of the economy, use of State resources and assimilation of the masses into the party-regime through patronage and clientelism, creation of a politico-military nexus and overt and covert electoral manipulation strategies meant to disenfranchise opposition political parties.

“The weakening and internal contestations of … Mugabe’s princely Machiavellian politics caused by his old age has brought a lot of disparate and contradictory internal forces all vying to capture the throne.

“This far, the warring parties appear determined to decimate each other, leaving the political party more severely weakened than at any point since its formation in 1963.

“This historic moment, marked by ... a monumental informalisation of the economy affecting the livelihoods of millions of Zimbabweans, internal contradictions and discohesion are the greatest threat to the possible demise of Zanu PF because of the magnitude of the structural and institutional weakening of the hegemonic edifice,” ZDI said.

“State security apparatus have always been the bulwark of Zanu PF support due to the politico-military nexus.

The coercive apparatus, including the war veterans, have been at the forefront of aggressively campaigning for Zanu PF rule,” ZDI added.

The report also noted that although former Zanu PF members like Edgar Tekere and Margret Dongo had tried to take the party head-on, their efforts had failed because the ruling party was relatively united at the time, and the former liberation movement had a capacity to thwart internal dissent then.

The think-tank said the situation was now dramatically different, even when compared to 2008 — as the issue of succession and factions had become more pronounced.

“The lack of succession framework has been Zanu PF’s Achilles heel…,” the report said, adding that the party’s dirty linen was now being washed in public, making it “fashionable” to contravene Mugabe and his decisions, as more cadres defected to former Vice President Joice Mujuru’s Zimbabwe People First party.

Comments (11)

Mugabe is a sociopath and in his wake he intends to leave a trail of ruin and destruction making it virtually impossible for anyone else for anyone else to rule. His recent actions show that he is intentionally causing rifts and divisions hoping to spark a civil war and total chaos. Be warned fellow Zimbabweans.

White Colonial Biy - 29 March 2016

Mugabe knows very well there will be an end to his time. He is so irresponsible that he does not bother what happens after him as long as his kids are safe and catered for. This is one trap we Zimbabweans have to be aware of.

Masamba Akareyo - Tanganda - 29 March 2016

obviously the zimbabwe democracy institute is a donor funded and driven organisation,its not surprising that with the prevailing donor fatigue,the so called institute is trying to endear itself to the donor community to get funding and remain relevant,this report is a non starter,ask ibbo mandaza how many reports predicting the demise of the revolutionary party he has written since we pushed him off the gravy train,his analysis,like this one always off the mark but like people singing for their supper they continue to produce half baked reports to appease their sponsors,and where will the report be launched?some 5 star hotel where they will treat themselves to some food and drink,shame

truth - 29 March 2016

Africans have a "Father knows best" syndrome which makes it impossible for under 50's to be leaders in Africa?

Okech - 29 March 2016

There is no succession to talk f in ZANU PF. Mugabe will die in power or leave things getting to a crisis and then he will fled the country. Then you hear someone saying Mugabe is a God given leader .Just because you are looting under his name you keep on praising him. Are you saying there is no Zimbabwe after Mugabe? I think it is high time people stop fantasizing things. Mugabe wakatonga kusvika kunana 1995 uko. Pamwe pose apa dzanga dzangova nharo. MDC has been winning elections . Just tell Mugabe that he is a life President but for the success of the country he has to rest and we have young and energetic blood in power.

gwemanza - 29 March 2016

Unfortunately, it's not just Mugabe with the sociopathic bent, the whole load of these ZANU maggots could be described as such. They have no love for Country, no pride in being Zimbabwean. All they seek is to loot and destroy because that's the ZANU philosophy. To think, anything with a ZANU label can bring good to Zim, is to live in a cloud of intoxicating smoke.

Dunlop Munjanja - 29 March 2016

Grace rocks this "baby" and has probably done so for the last 16 years at least. disGrace may typically leave him in his soiled adult diapers until he agrees with her and does her bidding. It is not true to say that he has no successor he or Grace are trying to establish a Mugabe Dynasty with the status of a [fake] democracy, even if the illusion is there for Grace and Bob (as long as he lives). May he rest in Pieces!

Nooshie - 29 March 2016

Recycling old garbage again. Nonsense daily news. Rubbish.

Chokwadi - 30 March 2016

This rumour mongoring from political analysts is annoying and this is what Dailynews is good at. Report events instead of opinions. I mean seriously, nothing has changed on the ground. Report MPs that are defecting to the other parties. That is real news not this towards 2018 stuff you continue to shove down our throats.

Rumuormonger - 30 March 2016

madzimbabwe yasvika nguva yekuti tese tisvinure ahead of 2018. with all dirt of rigging and zanu infiltration now out, it is now time that we realise how demonic zanu and its zpf cousins are. let us collectively put faith and support in the mdc-t and register to vote so that we can deliver ourselves from the colonial bondage of zanu. baba vachine zanu mumoyo Havana urozvi. it is high time welsman, Elton and tindo (WET) come back to the train (mdc-t) lest you will be left high and dry come 2018!!!

josphat mugadzaweta - 30 March 2016

hatisvinurire mdc yekwa tsvangirai. if it was the mdc party for all zimbabweans we would have continued supporting it. now that it belongs to one individual we will not be part to it. it has become a cult just like zanu. we have now moved on to the people first. mdc t is now history. 2018 vote mai mujuru. she is a moderate and commands respect from the far east to all western countries.

zvirozviyedzwa - 30 March 2016

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