Mugabe's end nigh: Think tank

HARARE - With Zimbabwe teetering on the brink of total collapse due to a worsening political and economic environment, a leading global think tank says 2016 is likely to be one of the most difficult years for President Robert Mugabe and his ruling post-congress Zanu PF.

In a research paper compiled by analyst Gary van Staden of NKC African Economics, a unit of the well-renowned Oxford Economics, he said Zanu PF — which is torn by its seemingly unstoppable factional and succession wars — could soon fracture and disintegrate like the proverbial deck of cards.

“The political environment is more likely than not to turn increasingly hostile over the next few months.

“Unemployment is at unimaginable heights, what few workers remain feel under threat, poverty on the streets is increasing and vacillation over economic reforms and policy realignment provide further sources of heat under the political pressure cooker,” Van Staden’s report notes.

It said festering succession wars within the ruling party indicated that Mugabe had lost control of Zanu PF and was now a “shadow of the former fiery leader” that he once was.

Speaking at the ruling party’s annual conference in Victoria Falls last month, Mugabe openly admitted that his party was rocked by factionalism, and went on to publicly admonish service chiefs — whom he accused of dabbling in politics.

“Mugabe’s acknowledgement of the obvious divisions within Zanu PF is partly designed to curb infighting, but it is also a final plea to allow him and his chosen elites to decide on a new leader and leave him with a little dignity.

“Elements of the party and State have taken clear positions in the race to succeed the ailing president, who may not even see out this term, let alone contest elections in 2018 (when he will be 94).

“Zimbabwe is an important piece in the Southern African political and economic jigsaw, but as things stand and are likely to play out, it is a piece that will remain missing,” the report added.

It said the military, who had been the real power behind Mugabe’s since the country’s independence from Britain in April 1980, had senior war veterans in command positions who allegedly wanted to see former Vice President Joice Mujuru in State House come 2018.

“(But) The military has other senior war hero veterans in command positions who want to see Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa in office as he is regarded as the least threat to the patronage networks developed over 30-plus years of Zanu-PF rule.

“And there are still others who want to see fresh political blood in some combination of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) factions and elements of Zanu-PF.

“The idea of a united military and security establishment meekly following Mr Mugabe’s wishes and endorsing a chosen successor (more particularly should this successor happen to be his wife Grace) is deeply flawed, irrational and now clearly wrong.

“The gloves are off in every nook and cranny of the party and the State, and the consequences for governance and policy making in Zimbabwe over the next 12 months or so are severe,” the report added.

Comments (16)

Mugabe must go and be a headman at KwaZvimba . Mnangagwa led the guguraundu which killed thousands of the Ndebeles and as such he will soon go behind bars , therefore he cannot succeed Mugabe . Grace Mugabe is very vocal and very immature in politics , just an empty vessel , she doesn't have war credentials , she is a good housewife , therefore she must not risk with here life by contesting for the top seat . Tsvangirai is of cause having all referent power to leader Zimbabwe but unfortunately he doesn't have those needed war credentials by politicials and that is a major stubbling block to his chances of leading our country . Joice Mujuru is a powerful widow of a man who was once very feared , she is having war credentials , she is favoured by war veterians and army seniors , she knows all election riggings of ZANU PF , honestly she is the only person to normalise the current situation of Zimbabwe . Tsvangirai must think wisely and stop being so hungry of power , yes Tsvangirai is having the crowd behind him , he must go for a coalition with Mujuru and accept to be the vice to Mujuru , in that way we will see a new birth of Zimbabwe and to an end of the ZANU PF regime .

MehlokaMthwakazi - 8 January 2016

The so-called think tank is stating the obvious-what every Tom, Jack and Jill who is aware of what is happening in Zimbabwe is already aware of. These guys are a joke and they are no different from the fake prophets who are prophesying the obvious.

El Rato - 8 January 2016

Any sane leader like Morgan would never want to bring Joyce near him bcoz she is reeking of zanu nonsense that has rubbed into her since the days she was making love with Solomon in bush camps in Moza while others were busy at the war front . Her husband was a commander of gukurahundi which for no season killed 20 000 unarmed civilians . She is zanu by blood and they is no way she can discard her beloved zanu no ways manhi . 34YEARS in a govt which has ravaged our economy what is she going to do to revive our economy WITH HER LITTLE BRAINS .Morgan is followed by masses so why would he join hands with murderers , thugs and thieves hawu suka bo

Diibulaanyika - 8 January 2016

The ruling party is indeed disintegrating and from the angle I am looking at it, violence and blood shed seem to be on the fast track heading straight towards us. Anyone who thinks that either Tsvangirai or Mujuru or a combination of both is an option or solution is MAD and devoid of any sense whatsoever. What more do we need to see and experience to realize just how dishonest and incompetent Tsvangirai is. As for Mujuru, she is still very much part of ZANU PF and will think and behave no differently to Mugabe and the way things are currently being run. All the pain, suffering and misery we are currently experiencing is our own fault because it is us who elected these leaders and have allowed them to cling on to power for so long. Why do we not see the pitfalls and why do we repeatedly make the same mistakes over and over again. WAKE UP ZIMBABWE.

Gwenure - 9 January 2016

vaMUGABE ndiwo wachatonga kusvika maThink tank aya akumupa sando

CHE - 9 January 2016

Don't waffle about gukurahundi mantra incriminating innocent people. If you don't like Mnangagwa just buy a map, take a car ?? and go to hell and meet diabolos

igwee okorocha - 9 January 2016

So if Morgan is incompetent why is it that where ever he goes it is always packed and liked by all sane people why is it that Mugabe is so scared of him why is it that when he was in a combined govt the economy changed drastically and that you see now are his left overs even the money that is now finished in govt he made it . schools hospitals , and other govt branches worked well during his tenure even police men who used to put on maraburabu or zvidende and tatated shoes which scupped soil and let it in the sicatulo esibhobokile for the first time put on proper and new uniform and new majombo that is Morgan for you . On top of that he had Mugabe who always disturbed Morgan by always talking nonsense instead of progress . So suwa nyanisi jealous down Morgan is very competent if he was not zanu would have destroyed the party he leads as they did to ZUM , FORUM PARTY zanu ndonga and .PF ZAPU which was swallowed by zanu . Hate or like him Morgan is the most like politician as of now .

Diibulaanyika - 9 January 2016

Find out what happened to East Germany's Honecke when he adopted a hard line on travel out of East Germany the subservient population rebelled and East Germany's biggest physical barrier crumbled. Rise up Zimbabwe and defeat these Klingons who cling on by their fingernails. These Klingons are a lot more nervous than you think.

Nooshie - 9 January 2016

the idea that someone has to stay as leader until mugabe has be dethroned is wrong. that is the premise from which mugabe argues. he will not leave power until zanu is united. we all know that zanu will never unite again. my argument is that we do not need to fall into the same pit with the morgan argument that he will only give power to someone after dethroning zanu. let someone else do it. morgan has failed even in his stipulated tenure. if mujuru wants to try, why not. chamisa, biti, or makoni even masiiwa, chanakira and many other people can do the job very well. moargan is simply a disturber.

zvirozviyedzwa - 10 January 2016

Some fools can not tell the difference between leader of govt and political party opposition leader . which want to get into govt .When you are in a struggle you do not change your best leader bcoz your enemy has said so . If you want to get into power stick to your best leader never worry about what zanu , Mangoma , Elias or Spepa are saying they are sellouts .

Diibulaanyika - 10 January 2016

NNNN

MM - 10 January 2016

@diibulainyoka you are using the same language that saw mugabe clock 36 years at the helm of this country. 1) not to change the leader because you are in a struggle that hasn't finished as yet and 2) others are sellouts. morgan is going to clock his 100 years while people like you continue bootlicking and singing for supper. the guy promised to leader for ONLY three terms. that came from his own mouth in 1999. the three terms are way up so he must ship off and we put another. we don't want handiende types that are hard to remove when their time has expired.

zvirozviyedzwa - 11 January 2016

Veduwee zviroizviyedzwa idhodhi raMugabe chairo. Anonhuwa kunga vatenzi.

mukai - 11 January 2016

Dai mukaramba muna morgan,punch bag cme 2018.to us zanu this guy is music to us.we can even buy him.if it was anybordy else since at the helm of mdc since 2000,im sure zanu wuld be opposition tday.all the suport he got from his followers,sadc,zuma,lindiwe zulu,europe,au, n he got all the intelligence infor from south africa not to goahead wth ellection,the guy flufed it all.lost.no wonder why all have given up on him.the breakaways wont stop.incoming now is mdc chami.so for zanu this guy is sweat music cme 2018.to this day he has no clue how he lost .

viola gwena - 13 January 2016

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