Mugabe can't win: Analysts

HARARE - President Robert Mugabe and his ruling Zanu PF are heading for defeat in the July 31 general election, according to political analysts.

President Robert Mugabe (left) squares off long-time rival Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai in the July 31 election.

The 89-year-old Mugabe is looking to extend his 33-year rule in polls scheduled for next Wednesday, where he squares off with four challengers, including his long-time arch-rival and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai.

Ibbo Mandaza, director of Harare-based think-tank Sapes Trust told the Daily News yesterday that Mugabe faces defeat because he has since lost control of the rural communities where he previously enjoyed popular support.

“Zanu PF’s social base which was the rural base has depleted over time especially given the socio-economic problems over the last 20 years,” Mandaza said.

“It is clear that these problems are daunting Mugabe and cannot be solved overnight.”

While the increasingly unpopular Mugabe was forced on Wednesday to deny accusations that he was attempting to steal the vote at a Mutare rally, Mandaza said the octogenarian’s rigging machinery would not be able to help him out this time as Zimbabweans were fully aware of the machinations.

Mandaza said 60 percent of the newly-registered votes will vote against him.

Tobaiwa Mudede, the Registrar General of Voters, told a news conference this week that 747 928FROM P1
new voters were registered by the close of the voter registration exercise that ended on July 9 and that 6.4 million people are registered to vote on July 31.

Mandaza said Mugabe, the world’s second oldest head of State, will also be weighed down by his advanced age.

“There is no way Zimbabweans in their right minds are going to vote for a 90-year-old president,” Mandaza said.

“The age liability also exposes Zanu PF’s failure to deal with succession, let alone leadership renewal where we have a situation where an 89-year-old is standing as presidential candidate in the wake of Kenya whose president (Uhuru Kenyatta) is 52 and Tanzania’s (president Jakaya) Kikwete is 63. The average age is about 57 years. Most post-liberation movements have managed succession well.”

Shakespear Hamauswa, a political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, also predicted a Mugabe loss, saying Tsvangirai’s penetration into Zanu PF strongholds was bound to sway votes away from the Zanu PF strongman.

“In 2008, Tsvangirai polled almost 50 percent of the same votes Mugabe received in those provinces and because of the new voters, Tsvangirai will likely get more votes,” Hamauswa said, adding Zanu PF retains control of only three out of the country’s 10 provinces.

Hamauswa said Mugabe’s Zanu PF will also have to deal with protest votes from victims of the 2008 post-poll political violence.

“People who were beaten up will seek revenge through the ballot box. Those who were beaten up and their relatives will engage in a protest vote,” Hamauswa said.

He added: “The youths which consist about 60 percent of the population will not vote for him because they need change. Mugabe is no longer in charge of his own political party and the vigour he had during his earlier days is no longer there and everyone is talking about change.”

However,  Charity Manyeruke, another political scientist at the University of Zimbabwe, predicted a Mugabe win on the back of the youth vote.

“He will win because he has the support of the youths owing to his policies like the land reform, indigenisation and economic empowerment which have benefited the youths which consists of the majority of the population of the country,” Manyeruke said.

“His age will not have any bearing because people like a president who is democratic, a shining star on the continent who has stood against neo-colonialism and imperialism.”

Davison Gomo, an affirmative action activist, said the people of Zimbabwe had an emotional connection with Mugabe and Zanu PF.

“Zanu PF is inextricably linked to the birth of a new and independent Zimbabwean nation and that history is irremovable and wishing it away in search of power, is political folly of the worst order,” Gomo said.
“It is almost impossible to gain power by denying the role and importance of the liberation struggle and even going as far as to denigrate the war veterans.”

Gomo said “there has been a relentless effort from powerful European nations and the USA supported by local political outfits to bring about regime change under the pretext that Zimbabwe is a failed state.”

Comments (51)

can not win yes but you are failing to remove him either proffesionally or by using power . robert is the other name for zimbabwe

cinton - 25 July 2013

charity manyeruke is living in a bubble, youths are not going for a leader who is out of sync with the changing world... no amount of lipstick on a pig will change it

ten2ten - 25 July 2013

the media should find a new name about these analysts..given the words in your arsenal surely please come up with an appropriate term to describe these voluble pretenders to analysis. You call them commentators or something. In fact anything else but analysts.. What is the meaning of 'bring regime change under the pretext that Zimbabwe is a failed state'..you could have failed me Ndugu Gomo, I thought the election were due. And out of which crystal ball was Manyeruke gazing into when she came up with this earth orbit altering revelation," he will win because he has the support of the youth" Might these youth be the same as those who brave being eaten by lions and crocodiles to cross the Limpopo and are found doing menial work all over the world despite their University diplomas. Any clever analyst should be mindful of insulting such an angry constituency with this nonsense..As a mother should be sensitive to the plight of the youth of whom some of them are her students..Give it a rest madam, we know you probably get a backhander for saying some of this tripe but all we ask is the fact that you prefix your name with the words doctor should impel you to at least say things which are reasonable not addled hoopte doodle which not even you believe!

gutter poet - 25 July 2013

do we have any direction for the future or we just want to please that old toothless man mugabe

MAJOR - 25 July 2013

Apologies for the above post, it was written in angry haste..the first line should read " the media should find a new name for analysts"... not about..

gutter poet - 25 July 2013

Lets think about our future so lets vote for Moziza. I am now very old thinking Mugabe will say my friend now its your turn......

nosmas - 25 July 2013

Lets think about our future so lets vote for Moziza. I am now very old thinking Mugabe will say my friend now its your turn......

nosmas - 25 July 2013

Which youths are being referred to by that manyeruke? do you mean those who are graduating and have no jobs? and which indigenisation have they benefitted from?Manyeruke giving an analysis is not waffling from the blues madam? go bck to grade 2b! Mugabe is facing exit period. He is a disaster and a threat to national security!A president who presides over 86% unemployment, poverty and disillusionment is not even fit for hell. He deserves another place. Let us see this party and its deadwood out.

RETIRED BRIG - 25 July 2013

Big rallies paZone apo Talk and take your relative and friend to the BOX and save us from the bearers hardships. IPSAM NE NOAH ZVANGU ZVICHIRI MUZHIRA WEZHIRA. HOKOYO NENHAMO IYO TAKE COVER NE VOTE YAKO.

CDE SIMUKAI ZANU TIYIPEDZE - 25 July 2013

@gutter poet - No apologies you just hammered the nail on the head! And mind you any reasonable person can easily observe that Zimbabweans do have the potential...if one reads all the comments that are made on our political discourse you can see a nation rising! Thank you Zimbabwe!

DZOKA - 25 July 2013

Zanu Pf yarumwa nechekuchera! Dai vakatora Simba for Presidency, I could have changed my mind! Now, I will vote for JUICE, ndirikutsvaka basa!

Jambanja paSalisbury - 25 July 2013

Baba jukwa be warned there are people who are looking for you day and night in Johannesburg, the Cio strongly belives that you are in Jozi. They are driving an ex japan with a funny name. the number plate of the car is NB726. Its driven by a heavely biult CIO who can be of the same height and weight with obert mpofu. Investgate before its too late. they have recruited a lot of people from Bulawayo who work in jozi to help hunt you down.

Dragon - 25 July 2013

There is no way that Mugabe and his JOC boyfriends are going to give up the gravy. Zimbabwe is their playground, their mine and their bank. The povo will remain the povo in this place. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs their head read.

harare drive - 25 July 2013

VICTORY POEM PART 6: Zimbabweans awaiting Mugabe to lose… All thirsty to cheer victory with a JUICE… Goebels Charambamanheru is despondent…. Knowing Zimbabweans are finally independent… He screams, what has hit us?… While Zimbabweans sing 'how nice!'… Too late to change your old 3-legged horse… We knew this would happen ofcourse?… Jonathan once warned, retire from old age… Before joining Zanupf's Stone Age… You could now be Save's garden boy... After you mocked him 'Teaboy'… Hezvo Machinja voti bwaaa…. Kumira nemafaro kuti twaa.

Stop-a-Thief - 25 July 2013

Harare drive I pity the likes of you! So out of touch.

T.MAzita - 25 July 2013

Let's be honest. Charity and Gomo are known ZANU PF Activists. Surely I pity those students whose future is being molded by Charity. In 2008 another Lecturer in the same department claimed that based on his data - ZANU PF was going to win. We all know what happened. Even after 6 weeks of cooking results ZANU PF was still beaten. I swear that even a Donkey can win this election if it opted to stand against Mugabe. You do not need to be a Rocket Scientist to see this. Remba kuudzwa wakasiya jira mumasese. Nhaka hapa budi. Chegore iro! Ndapedza ini rugotwe gwababa vaJukwa

dick mboko - 25 July 2013

Mandaza has not taken vote rigging into consideration!

Wilbert Mukori - 25 July 2013

This is a man who would loose even if he contested against a donkey, remember those words? Watch the space.

themba - 25 July 2013

Charity Manyekure's analysis leaves a lot to be desired, especially when it is coming from someone who holds a PhD. One would wonder as to how on earth did she manage to defend their thesis. She is so thick and clueless. Mandaza's analysis is spot on, I believe many Zimbabweans are literate enough to realise that its counterproductive and retrogressive to entrust the future of Zimbabwe and Zimbabweans to a 90 year old grandsire. What future do you plan with a 90 year old? The reason why Mugabe is using images taken 20 years ago for his campaign posters is the realisation that had he used the current pictures no one in their right mind will vote for him. So they are deceiving voters by portraying Mugabe youngish yet the truth is that his days are numbered both politically and on earth. Commenting on Mugabe, Jonathan Moyo once said “PERENNIAL wisdom from divine revelation and human experience dictates that all earthly things great or small, beautiful or ugly, good or bad, sad or happy, fool...ish or wise must finally come to an end”

Majaira Jairosi - 25 July 2013

VICTORY POEM PART 7:: Hekani waro hombarume… Ngatisimudze minwe… Hamuwone hazvisi cool… Kutongwa naVasekuru… Gore rino anochiwona… Kuchemera mai vake Bona… Simukai tinovhota… MaZanu abva adhota…

Stop-a-Thief - 25 July 2013

Icho chematama ichi chichaunza mabasa kwamuri here imi vane maPhd. Haikona kupusa mhani!! Do you think those pig skinned bastards care about creating jobs or they just wanna milk their resources. Musaite nungo go and farm and mine!! Pasi nevatengesi!!

bt baba - 26 July 2013

Depends on what you are analysing and whether you have the capacity to accept what you can see with your eyes. For an analysts you start from the point that "what is" is not necessarily "what ought to be". That facts speak for themselves (ras par laquetus). Analysis is not about speaking for the facts but pointing to what the facts are saying. Analysis is not about denying what the facts are saying and saying what they are not saying. Otherwise you are torturing the facts to confess what you want and then you get what you want but not necessarily the truth. The facts on the ground are that ZANU PF will do much better in this election than the MDC even if there may have been the desire to see the reverse being the outcome. The MDC knows why and ZANU PF knows why also.

Kudakwashe Munenharo - 26 July 2013

Tadii kuvimba naMwari,munhu anochinja mavara........aiwa ngativhotei murunyararo,akunda akunda,toshanda pamwechete nyika yedu uchi nemukaka iyi

MuNamato Chete - 26 July 2013

please next time exclude pesismistic &prophets of doom like manyeruke she cant see that Mugabe is finished business if you benefited unscrupulously from indigenization & land reform becoz Kasukuwere is yo ex don't... don't include us youths pliz. Which youths benefited from that disastrous reforms of Mugabe .l doubt your academic credentials wch qualifies yu to be an analyst l think yu are a Border Gezi product

eriah kutsirai - 26 July 2013

I liked the Daily News's balanced reporting. It is rather refreshing and far from the Herald and its sister papers who sing praise about anything associated with ZPF and besmirches anything associated with the opposition without giving them the right to reply. Thank you

charles charingeno - 26 July 2013

Charity is living out of this world.The youths are going to vote and they are vowing to vote overwhelmingly for MDC T and remove Robert Mugabe with henchmen.The youths are promising to remove this old granny for good,watch this space.Otherwise Charity is a street woman like those in zanu pf.

Professor Jonathan Moyo - 26 July 2013

Mugabe is worse than Hitler a dictator who kills his own people &destroy their economy even houses he demolished His reign is just characterized by genocide & atrocities .Ian Smith was better the economy strong people never went hungry like now people die from all angles now hunger,no medication(cholera)&on top of that Mugabe& his Junta massed slaughtered innocent souls in Matebeleland Gukurahundi ,his thirsty for blood can never be quenched 2008 June run off elections he murdered&butchered civilians for expressing their will I fled the country when my friend was killed at Beatrice Rd . I hate him he destroyed my motherland l doubt if he is true Zimbabwean he behaves like a foreigner on destructive mission Even his ministers he can kill . God have mercy on my country Zimbabwe .A country wth a diversified economy +educated hardworking peace loving citizens who being abused by this monster from Satan

son of Zimbabwe - 26 July 2013

Truth be told, As we want Tswangirai to win the harmonised elections in Less than a week lets, no Forget this, 1: The Ailing Mugabe Knows this and he already has Plans because in 2008 he relaxed and he took granted the Village Boy and the result he lost the Poll 2: Two in my opinion i would like to see a Regime Change in our Beloved country, MUgabe knows this the People of Zim are tired he will definatley Rig the Elections, Trust me As much as i like the Zapu and Ncube who have a better strategy of Bringing Zim from Ashes i still think thats the Strategy of Mugabe to put Ncube There to Devide the Votes, So my point is Mugabe will rig the elections say MDC-T 45% Zanu-40% And The Ncubes wil get 20% if the outcome turns out to be this way People will blame Ncube for not allowing Tswangs to have 50+1 needed. Then both parties will aproach Ncube to have the Majority, right this is where the deal will be worn, Ncube as he always says Tswangs doesnt have qulities to Rule the Country he will give the land back to the Whites he might consider joining forces with Mugabe of which Ncube will have more powers than Tswangs, and by this Mugabe would have archived his goals, well thus jus how i see it guys

Mfana Ka sobhuku - 26 July 2013

if you no wats good fo yu en yu wld support the president bt clearly yu dont.wts better to have a good or rather b e one employing pipo.creating empolyment wout empowering the black child brngs us back to e days o colonilism open yo eyes nd see wts infront o yu dis z our inheritance dont let anyone tek dt away frm yu.

happiness usiku - 26 July 2013

ZANU PF inoriga maopposition gen'a does not rig elections. next week kana marigwa motanga kutsvaga masanctions kubritain.

kanda - 26 July 2013

ngatisanyeperanai vaMugabe z gng 2 win.c ds https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=344101752390043&set=a.337976563002562.1073741826.337936363006582&type=1&relevant_count=1&ref=nf

TANYARADZWA - 26 July 2013

ngatisanyeperana c ds rally tkng place in gweru mkoba RG MUGABE Z GNG 2 WIN

tanyaradzwa winston - 26 July 2013

everyone is entitled to their own opinion,.,..which in many cases is what they wish would happen,.,.and not necessarily what is going to happen,.,.so in most cases it's wishful thinking,.,.as is with many of these comments here,.,.wishful thinking

bhururu - 26 July 2013

Ndamboverenga ZANU PF (herald) hei... You can see that its a paper dominated by old unthinkable and egoistic politicians. They know that there days are numbered that's why they are looting every thing. LETS ALL VOTE FO MDC T.

nosmas - 26 July 2013

Ndamboverenga ZANU PF (herald) hei... You can see that its a paper dominated by old unthinkable and egoistic politicians. They know that there days are numbered that's why they are looting every thing. LETS ALL VOTE FO MDC T.

nosmas - 26 July 2013

Mr Analiyst |I beg to differ from you. President Mugabe and ZANU (PF) will definately win this election as it is now clear, clean and obvious. From observation, supporters for the MDC T only follow Morgan Tvangirai as seen by the turn-out at his rallies. Its a shame that the MDC T aspiring candidates fro both house of assembly and council cannot attract huge crowds to their rallies. The only outstanding rallies with remarkable support are those by Tsvangirai, even Thokozani Khupe, Tendai Bit, Nelson Chamisa, cannot attract any meaningful crowds at their rallies. In contrast all ZANU PF star ralles are attracting thousands of people even Amai Joyce Mujuru herself is attracting huge numbers at her rallies and the same apllies for other ZANU (PF) candidates they are all attracting extremely huge numbers of people. The followers are not following only President Mugabe but are following the party unlike the MDC T where people follow only Morgan Tsvangirai as most of his political heavy weights in his party cannot attract huge crowds at rallies. This says a lot that ZANU PF is winning and has already worn whether Mr analysist likes it or not.

Morgan Shambare - 26 July 2013

Ko minda yakapiwa vanhu muna 2012 here? if not, then tellme why Bob lost 2008 elections with his mundas? blinkers on you so-called analysts or you are just loyal dogs singing for crumps from yor master's table. the same youths realised without capital there is no farming to brag about. some we have them here in diaspora but still they clam to have hectares of land in Zim. ask them what they looking for, they simply say we working for capital. why then give people land without capital? are they going to rip sorabeans? year-in, year-out they beg for capital. what kind of empowerment is this half baked poisonous cake?

silvanos - 26 July 2013

mmmm our president z gng 2 win ths election m nt jst bragng thnk m lyng follow hs rallys n c e nmbr of pipo gatherd @ hs rallys u wl c w@ m tokng abt like ryt nw in gweru.fr those who wanna c go on [team zanu pf live] on facebook n c 4 yrself

WINSTON - 26 July 2013

It is cheap politics to say that MDC-T will return country to the whites that will never happen anywhere in this world. There is no way the land reform can be reversed its just not possible. The best MDC-T can do is to make it better and improve the lives of farmers and get more resources to help them produce more. So lets not succumb to village politics of " Zimbabwe will never be a colony again" that's hogwash lets have real issues on the table and lets deal with those issues instead of empty slogans and bad mouth.

Habari - 26 July 2013

The truth be told President MUGABE is going to win,l dont doubt that at all you have come to the Rally at Gweru yesterday that is true victory.Musanyeperane at all

Runako Shona - 27 July 2013

Robert Mugabe ndisekuru vangu but vakaoma musoro kunge Jonathan Moyo. Ndirikuona Davison Gomo akupinda chikoro chimwechete nevarume vakafoira kare. Zviya party yako yawakambo mhanyisa kuma 80's urinary President Gomo uchatukuka Mugabe yainzi chii? Regera sekuru vangu ndiende nano kumusha tinotarisa nguruve musi wa 31/7/13 Welcome President & Commander in Chief Tsvangirai. You are a true Moses.

wella - 28 July 2013

Robert Mugabe ndisekuru vangu but vakaoma musoro kunge Jonathan Moyo. Ndirikuona Davison Gomo akupinda chikoro chimwechete nevarume vakafoira kare. Zviya party yako yawakambo mhanyisa kuma 80's urinary President Gomo uchatukuka Mugabe yainzi chii? Regera sekuru vangu ndiende nano kumusha tinotarisa nguruve musi wa 31/7/13 Welcome President & Commander in Chief Tsvangirai. You are a true Moses.

wella - 28 July 2013

Its jus so Sad that Stupid peopl like, Morgan Shambare and Runako Shona are allowed to Vote, Tswangirai is not the right Candidate his Policies are biased and if he looses i can tell you they will be bloodshed coz his Party being supported by the West they will put in cash to contest the Vote results leading to Violence, so The Green Team is the best in this Scenario Viva Welshman ne Zapu, Ongafuniyo kayekele

Mfana Ka Sobhuku... - 29 July 2013

ha! muchamama mgodoyi, come wednesday.

Umsomi Olomnyathi - 30 July 2013

Charity Manyeruke is those type of people who think Absalom Skhosana is the epitome of youth.

re-a-list - 30 July 2013

Morgan Shambare i think you r somewhere close to a retard but im not saying you are one. The crowds at Mugabes rally's r illusions, while i dont dispute that he still has a following, portion of attendies where are either forced to attend and there is the portion that wants to just see this man from meer intrigue coz he is strange character and not forgetting three free safety t-shirts.

re-a-list - 30 July 2013

Bhiga Mudhara Goshungo vatinza musitaira. Sadza hatichadyi mugaiwa, Mota haticha tengi maGAIA

BRAVO - 30 July 2013

The children of Israel about to exit Egypt to the promised land. It was not easy to be heading out of exile, Egypt. Picture this guys! We have lost big and great brains out and are busy developing other economies, ours is struggling and someone just watches this without taking action, l guess the best action one can take is to change things! Lets build our Zimbabwe and bring back the bright days.

Kauchy - 30 July 2013

In a land were there is intolerance of human rights, A land were an opinion against the president is tantamount to imprisonment, a land were idea of economic growth is actual a destruction bomb here i mean the so called indiginization which furnished zanu pf cronies. A land were some peole who were leaders in liberation struggle , thinks they own everyone, were as liberation struggle was fought by everyone. A land being led by looters and thieves who do not observe the laws they made. A land were a party forces people to attend its rallies because they have become so unpopular. A land were soldiers fights its own people who are not even state security threat. A land were leadership speaks history as if it brings food to the table. A land were leaders chokes and kills its own children only to get a forced vote. A land with leadership that sends all intellectuals to exile because they failed to run the nation. I say please wake up ma zanu pf and see change with every one.

Mr dee - 31 July 2013

mugabr must go nomatter what ,we are tired of his bullishit,we need change in zimbabwe,many people are unemployed because of that guy,fuck off mugabe.no more to bob,he should go and rule bona not zimbabwe...

nomore - 31 July 2013

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