Battle of Provinces 2013, Mugabe versus Tsvangirai

HARARE - The Daily News’ Elections Map crafted by the top newspaper’s Elections Centre reveals that Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s dominance in provinces outflanks that of his rival President Robert Mugabe ahead of the 2013 harmonised elections.

The map shows that Tsvangirai has an edge over Mugabe in the provinces of Manicaland, Harare, Matabeleland North, Matabeleland South and Bulawayo and as of the end of June, the total number of registered voters in these provinces stood at 2 661 741.

This is according to official figures from Registrar General Tobaiwa Mudede.

On the other hand, Mugabe dominates in the three provinces of Mashonaland East, Central and West with the total number of registered voters as at June 31, standing at 1 934 959. This means that the difference between the number of registered voters in Tsvangirai’s provinces beats that of Mugabe by 726 782.

It also means that Tsvangirai dominates in five provinces while Mugabe dominates in three.

There are two provinces where the two rivals are likely to share votes and these are Midlands and Masvingo which had a total of 1590 303 registered voters as at June 31.

While the numbers are not a reflection of the outcome of the 2013 presidential election, it gives an indication of the pattern of voting, just like in the 2008 election when Tsvangirai trounced Mugabe.

There are other factors like the Welshman Ncube faction of the MDC which might steal votes from both candidates.

While both Tsvangirai and Mugabe dominate eight provinces in total, it does not necessarily mean that all those perceived to have registered will actually vote.

Reports indicate that more than 6 200 000 Zimbabweans have registered to vote in the elections which will be held on July 31.

Harare and Manicaland which are regarded as Tsvangirai’s strongholds recorded the highest number of registered voters. In the last elections, the MDC made inroads in Masvingo province and the Daily News’ Election Centre believes that Mugabe and Tsvangirai will have a close fight in the province where they will almost equally share the vote.

In the Midlands, Mugabe had an edge over Tsvangirai in the last election but the MDC leader made serious inroads.

According to Research Advocacy Unit (RAU), Tsvangirai out-polled Mugabe in 70 percent of the constituencies in the 2008 elections.

Zec said Tsvangirai polled 1 195 562 votes which translates to 47,9 percent while Mugabe polled 1 079 730 which is 42 percent of the vote.

Don’t miss tomorrow’s edition of the Daily News for more info graphics on the 2013 harmonised elections.

The Daily News Elections Centre will give you a daily dose of cutting-edge election reporting.

 

Comments (35)

RUBBISH STATISTICS

TITUSMOYO - 11 July 2013

RUBBISH STATISTICS

TITUSMOYO - 11 July 2013

How come Mash East has more registered voters than the population. This where rigging starts.

james - 11 July 2013

mdc t is so far a giant and all seats which were taken by zanu in midlands will go to mdc t since there are no parallel candidature in midlands south province.

jefta zvidzai - 11 July 2013

with you Zvidzai about Midlands. The MDC T is better positioned for a clean sweep here.

gomba - 11 July 2013

Very informative, but don't forget that in the last elections, Parliamentary votes for ZANUPF were more than those for MDC because of the Mbora musango issue which may not be the same situation this time around where votes for Parliament may also go to Mugabe. Still very interesting statics well done, don't forget objectivity is of essence in Data analysis rather than being subjective.

Kambiri - 11 July 2013

there are some instances in your analysis where registered voters are more than the adult population, I think you should correct that. I have a feeling though that this election will go the runoff if we factor in the Welshman Ncube factor.

KM - 11 July 2013

Huuum, not sure who is the target for this mis leading information. There are more than two political parties contesting in the July 31 poll and there more than two presidential candidates. is this bias and wish by this paper to sway voters to some anticipated direction?

Hlo - 11 July 2013

Matibiri will be trounced by the youthful MDC-T president, bwaaaaaa

NDINI - 11 July 2013

pses pe blue ndepe ZPF futi, MATEBELELAND is shared between ZPF and MDC-N, maybe ka Harare chete ndo kano share ZPF ne MDC-T, but considering zvatakaona ku Zimbabwe grounds, the large piece of the cake is ZPF. ndicho chokwadi chaicho ichi. revisit this place after 31 jul and you will start knowing reality.

reason - 11 July 2013

pses pe blue ndepe ZPF futi, MATEBELELAND is shared between ZPF and MDC-N, maybe ka Harare chete ndo kano share ZPF ne MDC-T, but considering zvatakaona ku Zimbabwe grounds, the large piece of the cake is ZPF. ndicho chokwadi chaicho ichi. revisit this place after 31 jul and you will start knowing reality.

reason - 11 July 2013

Your analysis is riddled with lies,hw many constituencies did the mdc win in the midlands province pa previous election,less than ten out of the 26,above all u did not take cognisance of the fact that this time Welshman is involved,a development which will affect mdc's outing in the two matebeleland provinces,including Bulawayo.After all zanu pf won the popular vote in the parliamentary and senatorial elections compared to presidential vote,a disparity attributed to bhora musango,this time effects of same hv been reducing owing to the fact that Makoni is now mdc

shelaz - 11 July 2013

Out of that total of registered voters you have to take into account people who are in the diaspora and will not be voting. Most of the diasporans are from Hre and Byo and the Mat provinces.

tsoka - 11 July 2013

i think it's now very clear that mdct will get far less votes in matebeleland coz in his 2008 campaign he promised compensation to the gukurahundi victims and the finance minister is from his party yet he chose to ignore his promises. had biti put up a fund for compensation, was president mugabe going to shoot down the proposal? Welshman ncube's campaign is based on that fact and we see a matebeleland almost divided into 3 equal parts, zanupf-mdcn-mdct. The last vote was a protest and i do believe parties are being judged in their gnu participation and all pointers show a ZANUPF victory. From plumtre to mutare high way to non imposition of candidates by zanupf and the ever scarce mdct electricity, water, mangoma meddling in the chisumbanje plant to residents receivin faeces on their tapes in gweru and harare to the cholera in harare where mdct had bn in power for 8 years to tsvangirai's many girlfriends and the alleged murder of susan tsvangirai by tsvangirai's aide in a said car crash and much more-ves.

clyde murove - 11 July 2013

Oh! ZANU PF yaenda vakomana am not good in figures but what I seing from your Election Map seems as though the colour shading Mash Cent, East and West is sending shivers down the spines of some goons. Definitley MDC T is the outright winner!!!

Steel Wire - 11 July 2013

There is no objectivity in the MDC-T supporters who are masquerading as analysts as it is clear that they get their inspiration from Baba Jukwa. These biased analysts are counterparts of ZANU(PF)'s Mahoso etc whose views are obvious.

Rabison Nyundo - 11 July 2013

There is no objectivity in the MDC-T supporters who are masquerading as analysts as it is clear that they get their inspiration from Baba Jukwa. These biased analysts are counterparts of ZANU(PF)'s Mahoso etc whose views are obvious.

Rabison Nyundo - 11 July 2013

This is a very valid analysis except you errred in not including Mash West as a swing province like Masvingo and Midlands. Last election Tsvangirai got 47% of the popular vote.

Ssuspenza - 11 July 2013

Surely MDC T will win by 85% this is just clear.MDC T is better prepared than that party of thugs (zanupf).

igwe - 11 July 2013

USING ELECTION ANALYSIS FROM ZESN S WEBSITE of 2008 election, YOU WILL REALISE MDC won MORE COUNCILLORS IN ALL PROVINCES except in Mat South , Mash East and Mash Central only

Hweru - 11 July 2013

Good analysis and well thought out piece of work, do not worry about Welshman Ncube who fought the 2008 election behind Makoni via Mutambara. Welshman Ncube is not contesting elections for the first time, he was there in 2008 and he even lost to Khupe so I do not see why the Welshman factor comes in now. What will be shared and needs the Ncube factor is presidential electorate but we again know that his people voted for Makoni who is not contesting this time around and has given his vote to Tsvangson but then there is the Dabengwa factor who also supported Makoni so the figures that are up for sharing is 8% for Makoni but for parliament the trend will be more or less like in 2008 or better for the more energetic because: Hailume gore rinoZanu!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Qawe laMaqawe - 11 July 2013

Reason don't talk abt huwandu wevanhu vanga vari kurally yaMugabe like they go there nekuda, vakaitwa zvekufoswa like what Zanu pf is always good of doing, forcing people to attend its rallies, forcing people to watch its propaganda on that Zanu pf Broadcasting coperation ZBC and as well forcing people to vote for Zanu Pf kana vanhu vavotera MDC bato regutsaruzhinji vorohwa vachinzi makaresva kuvota that's bulshit gore rino hakuna iyoyo motogwinya kurigger sezvo mune madegree acho ukubirira coz paX hamuna yenyu

Gerald mlambo - 11 July 2013

Gore rino hakuna bhora musango, hakuna re-run, 31 July 2013 President Tsvangirai kustate house. Munhu asvinura.

Shishito - 12 July 2013

just bear in mind that zanu pf supporters are forced to go to rallies and some individuals are attending for different reasons eg: that the might might be victimised, that they want to see the ailing president, that they just want the cap and t/shirt. MDC supporters go to rallies with the party at heart. NO FORCE. attends the rallies willingly

believe - 12 July 2013

Maoko mudenga.Hezvoko Dziii kuState House.Chinja iweeee

nathaniel - 12 July 2013

The analysis is biased, MDC will not dominate Matabeleland Provinces because of Dabengwa and Ncube. Midlands can go either side. Masvingo majority is ZANU. These opposition parties were just supposed to swallow their pride and do a coalition. Another ZANU PF victory.

Licoco - 12 July 2013

This isn't a true analysis.MDC-T doesn't dominate Matebeleland,they only have Midlands and Manicaland as their strongholds.Masvingo province is for Zanu pf and that's a well known fact.Mdc-t and MDC will split the Matebeleland votes which you perceive to be MDC-T strongholds.All opposition needs to join hands and fight Mugabe otherwise I don't c Tsvangirai pulling a surprise on Mugabe.Zanu pf wil win resoundingly in the forthcoming elections mark my words.We all want change but not in the name of Tsvangirai.

Governor - 12 July 2013

Dreaming journalists who do not investigate figures before publishing should leave the profession to people who conduct scientific surveys based on representative samples!!

Gabs - 12 July 2013

Dreaming journalists who do not investigate figures before publishing should leave the profession to people who conduct scientific surveys based on representative samples!!

Gabs - 12 July 2013

Wishful thinking for this paper. 1. Your figures in 2 provinces are fictitious. how come you have more registered voters than Registered adults. 2. Do you realy think Chematama has a chance against Ncube and Dabengwa in Matebeleland ? Of the 58 constituencies of all Matebeleland and Bulawayo, 4 are Zanu pf because isu hatigabhe gabhe. 54 left becarefull MDCT and Ncube may share equally. That means 27 each. If that 54 have been part of the MDCT's 98 seats in the past election, this time subtract 27 that gives you 71 seats .Of the 71 Zanu PF is going to take re claim not less than 10 seats from MDCT and Chematama is left with a mere 61 seats, Ncube 27 seats.For Zanu PF its 94 seats plus 10=104 seats . The remaining 18 seats 5 are independants and the 13 are shared by Mdc N ,MdcT and Zanu PF saka Zanu PF inenge yakapinda ende rwendo rwuno hakuna re-run . ICHO-O-OO !!!!!!!

Gunman Mumunda - 15 July 2013

wrong and dangerous statistics. Painting Matabeleland South red is nonsensical, because correct me if I am wrong, but MDC T won only in Matobo Noth (Lovemore Moyo). MDC T lost Insiza, Bulimangwe, Gwanda, Mzingane, Beitbridge, the list goes on even in Mat North. In the Midlands ZANU PF won close to 20 constituencies. In light of this these statistics have been compiled by a moron who even forgot that Ncube is going to sweep all the constituencies in Mat provinces and the Midlands, and this time around ZANU PF is going to reclaim its constituencies it lost to MDC T due to the economic conditions prevailing during that time. Ncube is not only going to harvest constituencies in Mat and Midlands, but he is also going to win key constituencies country wide. Tsvangirai and his dome supporters can continue day dreaming 31st is by the corner, they must start mourning in advance. Mdc t problem has always been and is that they claim victory where they lost. Come August they will be saying that they have been cheated. Now instead of facing reality and campaigning they are busy cheating themselves using fake analysis and statistics.

chindori chinyika - 16 July 2013

Mash East does not surprise UMP with 38000 adults and children according to the censors has 55000 registered voters. Add that of MT Darwin which may have 60000 voters from an adult population of 15000 then you can expect a huge figure for Zanupf considering it is the province with areas deemed unaccessible. But kwedu kuMasvingo tomboda kuzama vekwa Chivi kuzhara uko ndivo vachatinetsa hedu.

maita - 16 July 2013

Politics sometimes is like football.You may be caught with you pants down. In 2008 ZANU PF pants were down but clever Bob picked them up. In 2013 MDC (formations) pants are down PM pick them up

dungas - 18 July 2013

mai gore rino

mbwende - 18 July 2013

mai gore rino

mbwende - 18 July 2013

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