Baba Jukwa poll: Tsvangirai leads

HARARE – An opinion poll conducted by influential Facebook character, Baba Jukwa, suggests that Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai maintains a landslide lead over his Zanu PF opponent President Robert Mugabe in the run-up to the make-or-break presidential vote.

The online opinion poll shows Tsvangirai leading the pack with 85 percent of votes, while 10 percent of the Zimbabweans on the social networking site are backing Mugabe.

Welshman Ncube, leader of the smaller MDC is on three percent of the vote, while Zapu leader Dumiso Dabengwa and Kisinoti Mukwazhe are both tied on one percent.

The five presidential candidates successfully lodged their papers at the Nomination Court last Friday.

With 4 189 respondents having participated in the online poll at the time of going to press last night, the survey asked  respondents “Who is going to win the next coming Zimbabwean election?”

The faceless Facebook character, who for four months has de-campaigned Zanu PF in a devastating manner never witnessed since independence in 1980, believes that whoever wins his opinion poll is likely to grab the presidency.

“As we celebrate our 200 000 plus membership mark, today is the day we carry out our survey on who you will vote, come 31 July,” wrote Baba Jukwa on his Facebook page on Tuesday.

“What will come out of this survey is what will be the outcome of the elections.”

By yesterday, Baba Jukwa’s popularity ratings were skyrocketing, garnering 208 000 likes on his Facebook page up from 205 000 the previous day, while hundreds of thousands more reportedly just browse the page without liking it for fear of reprisals.

The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the MDC leader’s margin is still well above the poll’s credibility interval — a measurement of polls’ accuracy.

With the election just weeks away, Tsvangirai’s surge followed his strong performance in policy articulation against Mugabe who launches his manifesto tomorrow and erased a jump in support that Mugabe had enjoyed following a dent that the MDC leader suffered following scandals thrown up by his dalliances with women.

Recent polls had put Tsvangirai and Mugabe in a statistical dead heat, but Baba Jukwa’s opinion poll gives Tsvangirai an unassailable 85 percent lead, with Mugabe trailing far behind with a miserly 10 percent.

Baba Jukwa’s survey was, however dismissed by Zanu PF, Ncube’s MDC and Zapu, while Tsvangirai’s MDC says the poll reflects what is set to happen in the impending elections barring vote rigging.

MDC’s spokesperson Douglas Mwonzora, said the opinion poll was spot-on.

“We are on record saying that we will be targeting 90 percent of the vote and we will get a landslide,” Mwonzora said

Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, secretary-general of Ncube’s MDC, scoffed at the opinion poll before hanging up the line.

Kurauone Chihwayi, the party deputy spokesperson, said although Baba Jukwa has made some pin-point predictions in the past, his survey is off the mark, claiming the smaller MDC formation will obtain no less than 55 percent of the popular vote.

“Baba Jukwa might have made accurate predictions in the past but we disagree with his opinion poll,” Chihwayi said.

“We do not know how accurate it is and we will not spend time concentrating on surveys done by pro-Tsvangirai groups.”

But Baba Jukwa claims to be a Zanu PF insider piqued by grotesque corruption and brutality in the ex-majority party.

With the prospects of a grand coalition between Tsvangirai and Ncube dimming each day, Chihwayi said the mainstream MDC does not have the numbers    to back up Baba Jukwa’s opinion poll.

Zanu PF, on the other hand, says it has no time for Baba Jukwa.

Dabengwa said Baba Jukwa was entitled to his opinion.

“Even if our support is bigger than that, we cannot stop Baba Jukwa from having his surveys,” he said. “Very soon we will get to know the actual results when elections are held.”

Mukwazhe, who was endorsed by only one percent, said Baba Jukwa is trying to influence people into voting for Tsvangirai.

“We are going to surprise Tsvangirai and Mugabe because of our strategies and policies,” he said.

“We will ensure that the next elections’ outcome will be favourable to us. People know what they want because they are tired of Zanu PF and MDC.”

Comments (42)

I put it at 65% in favour of Tsvangirai.

Benjamin Chitate - 4 July 2013

please daily news, don't stoop so low to quote that baba jukwa thing and make it a head line. may be kwaramba is a trainee journalist, if thats the case no problem, she still needs more lessons in proffesional journalism, but for this story she has scored 0.5 out of ten.

reason - 4 July 2013

mdc t beware of the wounded zanupf in rural areas we are going to have zanu pf all night pungwes. l put it as mdc t 54% zanu pf 45% other parties 1%

vote yangu - 4 July 2013

Its a sure case. Can the old man beat Tsvangirayi ubder a free and fair election? All these nonsensical strategies being implemented by ZPF indicates their warning support. The want to win by hook and crook.

chabeChabe - 4 July 2013

so u telling me that baba jukwa is an mdc puppet.who do u think views his profile.most are mdc members.yo opinion is rubbish.tipeiwo maserious vanhu imi.plu hamutaure chokwadi.u a one sided.we know that whom u support.

jane - 4 July 2013

Its a sure case. Can the old man beat Tsvangirayi ubder a free and fair election? All these nonsensical strategies being implemented by ZPF indicates their warning support. The want to win by hook and crook.

chabeChabe - 4 July 2013

Considering that the survey is on a site hostile to Zanu Pf ,85% is not something to scream about unless it was conducted by herald or Z.B.C. We cannot be certain respondents are all registered voters,because opposition is popular with unregistered voters.Those who support zanu pf 90% will surely vote as for these other parties they have support but the percentage that proceed to vote is low.check with your friends.

denford Ndawona - 4 July 2013

Kikikikiki Poll yabaya vamwe iyi. kikikikik

Ndini - 4 July 2013

This poll is very accurate.I once said that MDC T will win by 85% and people did not believe it.Now Baba jukwa has said it again,that MDC T win by 85 %.Mr Mwonzora is also right to say 90% for MDC T,almost there.

igwe - 4 July 2013

While the poll is a true reflection of what the generality if Zimbos want, I tend to agree with Denford Ndawona's analysis. MDC must VERY QUCKILY convince masalad asingadi kumira mumaqueue kuti aite think again aende kunoita register nokukasika kusati kwasviba. I really do not know how MDC will do it but this is the killer punch. MDC must come up with a strategy that compels everyone to think voting only on the day. A large number of potential change voters tend to get distracted by immediate but short-lived bread and butter issues on the voting day thereby costing the MDC and the country. On the other hand, while the majority of rural people are now wise, they are still gripped by this evil called fear. No wonder why the Bible classifies fear other than fear of the Lord an enemy.

Gerald Ndaumbwe - 4 July 2013

Spot on !Let us go vote!

hitiyo Yami - 4 July 2013

The rating was done on line-it does not include rural or resettled. people.

dungas - 4 July 2013

Baba Jukwa has lost the plot. How on earth does he know the location of the voters and weather they are actually registered as such. He is losing relevance and is becoming a politicatl tool of the MDC, if not their puppet.

Lovemore Kaseke - 4 July 2013

Fambai nebhora Mudhara Jukwa, Pedzai vanhu takuvara nenhamo munyika yezimbabwe

shamiso mutasa - 4 July 2013

Asi Daily News yakapenga, I notice NewsDay yazobvuta nyaya yenyu yaBaba Jukwa ndokumhanya nayo. Keep up the good work at Daily News, keep breaking the news while they follow.

shamiso mutasa - 4 July 2013

Musazvifadza nenhema, these are people over-seas who are voting on internet. Not those in rural areas. Wait and see 31 July is coming you MDC people.

kuda - 4 July 2013

I am not into politics but this is hogwash.there is no way any one party will win such a landslide. whatb has changed between 2008 and now to warrant such change by the electorate

Willie Risiro - 4 July 2013

Even ZPF supporters are allowed to vote on BJ's opinion poll. Tell all of them tomorrow at the Star rally to vote on this opinion poll because hatizive wamavhotera because your vote is your secret. Mina voted ZPF but ndarwadziwa nezvabuda apo tiri ku minority akomana

Izvozvi So - 4 July 2013

Can someone tell the reporter who peened this piece to do his/her homework. You can not call this a poll that reflects people who will go and vote. Why dont they ask likely voters relevant qustions like how likely are you to vote?, If the elections were held today, who would you vote for? etc

Tino - 4 July 2013

The writing is very clear on the wall for Zano Pf ,,,,,MDC-T will romp to victory . A very BIG X for Moregan

Aluta - 4 July 2013

The facebook page that baba jukwa uses is likely follwed primarily by MDC suppoters anyway, which then translate to say most of the respondents have a bias towards MDC, it is not a representative sample of the whole electrorate not even by a long shot

Tino - 4 July 2013

Hahaha this unscientific survey is like going to either Shake shake or Harvest house and asking the guys there who they think will win the erections......ooups!! meant elections

Lokayi WaNkomponi - 4 July 2013

The writing is very clear on the wall for Zano PF ,,,,MDC-T will romp to victory . A very BIG X for Chematama come July 31

Aluta - 4 July 2013

what about the pungwes that have started in rural areas. Watchout Guvheya and Ngwena .

lovemore takafuma - 4 July 2013

foools folllow this BabaJukwa thing empty tins makes makes lots of noise

mafiravanhu - 4 July 2013

If more than half of poeple who follow Baba Jukwa are going to vote MT am sure he will get 65% of the total vote.

General Pancho Villa - 4 July 2013

This is a very valid poll and ppl have to take it seriously. Those angry over a survey result should simply carry their own survey and publish the results. Morgan s popularity is surging and the poll is spot on

Tsano - 4 July 2013

Cellphone penetration is broader than print and electronic media combined. hapana chembere isisagoni kushandisa fon nowadays. try sending money ne ecocash and they wont miss a button. Bite it Tsvangirai is the most loved and preferred leader at the moment. Forget the sanctions, empowerment rubbish.

Suluman - 4 July 2013

with over 4000 Zimbabweans participating in the poll, this poll by far is the biggest so far and a near reflection of what is coming. Harahwa ngaichizorora akadarowo Barack Obama

AMurewa - 4 July 2013

Lets the truth be told. Zanu-PF cannot win a free and fair election, period. How can a country be lead by a 90 year old? Cherondimiwo ma-ardent supporters eZanu-PF

Gondobwe - 4 July 2013

Aha ndino anonzi maroto chaiwo .85% ku MDC asi dai vati the results are in favor ZANU PF. It is the party for the people and I urge you to attend today's rally. Those people who are out of the country musanyeperwe with those who claim to have inside information ye ZANU PF. This is a propaganda inoshandiswa neMDC

Ngawaite - 5 July 2013

Why would anyone vote for ZANU PF With 85 % of unemployment and a minimum of 2 million of Zimbabweans forced to leave their home lands to seek employment to be able to feed their families . Why would honest Zimbabweans vote for ZANU PF?

Out of work - 5 July 2013

Baba Jukwa's survey is so not reliable or an accurate reflection of the pending election bcz most people who follow BJ are anti ZPF and not registered voters! Most ZPF supporters dont have access to the internet and those that do have no interest in BJ. MT should not be fooled by this poor survey. It is a clear win for ZPF especially since their policy resonates with most Zimbabweans thinking (especially those currently living IN Zimbabwe!). Imi veDaily News munobva manyanya kuratidza kuti who your paymasters are; dont be overzealous in your reporting and try to be objective mbijana...that's why we end up buying the Newsday!

ZPF - 5 July 2013

Here are a few points to ponder concerning the Babqa Jukwa poll 1.Rural Zimbabweans were not part of the poll because they have no internet facilities 2.Are all the people who responded to the poll registered voters? 3. have you considered the ZANUPF rigging machinery? 4. Are uou certain the polls will be free and fair? and finally 5. Is this not not a ploy to lull the MDC into complacency?

Johno - 5 July 2013

like BJ says at the end of every Jukwaleak "ndatenda"

Mvezo - 5 July 2013

Reason is like what president said about Lindiwe Zulu....BJ can make headlines that's why u know him

Guestzw - 6 July 2013

The number of Zanu pf supporters criticizing this post shows Zpf ppl are also online. Let mai jukwa carry her own and see if Zpf will win. That's a survey and its valid.

Keith - 6 July 2013

The number of Zanu pf supporters criticizing this post shows Zpf ppl are also online. Let mai jukwa carry her own and see if Zpf will win. That's a survey and its valid.

Keith - 6 July 2013

@Johno- with mobile penetration at 90%..lets interrogate the results rather than throw them away!

gutter poet - 6 July 2013

MORGAIN will win the coming elections

mr tee - 9 July 2013

gore rino vamwe vachasura chando.......!!!!!

zvimamo - 9 July 2013

problem with zanu pf is that when they hold political rallies they force markets to close shop and even divert private road users to follow them worse they even take pple at a funeral to attend their rally. with the MDC-T ITS PURELY VOLUNTARY BUT WATCH THE NUMBERS WEEKEND WE ARE GOING TO MUTARE

maeresera - 11 July 2013

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