HARARE - Finance minister Tendai Biti has told President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai to keep violence at bay ahead of forthcoming elections, warning that the economy will suffer terribly if a repeat of the 2008 bloodshed happens.

He was speaking on the sidelines of a 2012 government workshop programme review and 2013 budget consultations held in the capital yesterday.

With the warning coming two weeks ahead of his 2013 budget presentation — which is likely to show a slowdown in economic growth due to political bickering — Biti warned that Zimbabwe’s economy could contract by eight percent per annum in the next five years if the country proceeds with a violent election next year.

The country is expected to hold a watershed plebiscite next year following the expiry of the tenure of the fragile coalition government.

Biti said political leaders should desist from violent election campaigns and called for “peaceful elections and incontestable election outcomes”.

“What we are afraid of in Zimbabwe are elections that are to be held next year. And I am appealing to the principals to preach peace to their supporters during election campaigns,” he said.

“If we continue with our political fighting we risk plunging the economy into an abyss. Studies have shown that all warring economies lose eight percent of their gross domestic product for the next five years.”

Zimbabwe's coalition government between rivals Mugabe and Tsvangirai was formed after violent elections in 2008, when Zanu-PF lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since independence and Mugabe lost first round voting to Tsvangirai.

Mugabe returned as president after Tsvangirai withdrew from the subsequent runoff citing gross violence which he said was perpetrated by the military and left over 200 of his supporters dead.

Mugabe has repeatedly said elections should be held by March 2013 but Tsvangirai says while elections are definitely on next year, no actual date has been set.

Part of the aim of the coalition government was to promote reconciliation and lower political temperatures.

Biti yesterday warned that premature talk of elections usually increases political risk and this had the potential to affect the growth of the economy.

“We need sustainable peace for us to consolidate the economic gains of the past four years. Considering our past history of election violence, elections must be done in one day not in one year,” he said.

Political analysts fear a rushed election may drag the country back to the conflict that obtained before the formation of the coalition government four year ago.

Back then, capacity utilisation in industry had dropped to below 10 percent with job losses and the flight of skills taking a toll on the economy.

The situation was even worse in the two most critical social sectors, health and education, which virtually collapsed because of staff shortages and lack of funding.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently predicted that Zimbabwe’s economy will only grow by 4, 7 percent this year from a targeted 9, 8 percent due to key risks that include political instability, a decline in exports, fiscal slippages, financial sector stress and policy uncertainty. - John Kachembere